Born to Run: An Exclusive Look at RI’s 2022 Governor’s Race

Dynamite Rhythm, in button-down vests and red ties, covers “Jolene” on the main stage, as fair-goers sporting AutumnFest buttons get a jump on doughboys. The opening ceremonies are a prolonged affair of gratitude for the good citizens who resuscitated this important event in the municipal calendar after a pandemic-forced hiatus. It’s also 340 days, or 8,160 hours, or 489,600 minutes until Primary Day, and gubernatorial candidate Nellie Gorbea intends to waste not one of them.

She’s got a mid-point speaking spot, and wisely keeps it short. She beams her energy outward onto the crowd and the city itself.

“Woonsocket is key to the economic vibrancy of our state! We can Build Back Better!”

In the crowd, she hugs old friends and political colleagues, snaps a picture with Miss Woonsocket, and stumps to anyone: discussing supply chain issues with a state rep or improving schools to a gaggle of dance team girls several years away from voter registration.

With seven officially declared gubernatorial candidates and one unofficial candidate, separating one’s self from a pack with credible resumes and not a whole lot of daylight between positions is a challenge that Gorbea is meeting, on this day, one handshake at a time.

Illustration by Matt Collins.

Nine months from now, Rhode Island’s 800,000 eligible voters will select a Democratic and Republican nominee to face off with any independent challengers over the political eye-blink of seven weeks until November’s general election. So, 2021 saw a cascade of public declarations.

On the Democratic side: former Secretary of State Matt Brown, former CVS executive Helena Foulkes, current Secretary of State Nellie Gorbea, State Treasurer Seth Magaziner, and health care consultant Dr. Luis Daniel Muñoz; Governor Dan McKee will make his candidacy official this month. At press time, only one Republican has officially declared his candidacy: David Darlington, CEO of Fletcher Granite and a former Governor Lincoln Almond administration official. Paul Rianna Jr., a certified nursing assistant and a critic of vaccine mandates, is running as an independent.

“I can’t remember a time that we’ve had four candidates — all of whom have run successful statewide races running head-to-head,” says Providence College political scientist Tony Affigne. “Assuming they are not too badly bloodied by the primary, the Democrat will be in a very strong position to win decisively given the contortions the Republicans will face this year trying to be the Rhode Island version of the party of Trump without Trump.”

This fall, things were mostly looking up. State standardized test scores were down, but COVID vaccination rates were going up. More than 90 percent of Rhode Island adults had received at least one COVID vaccine shot; about 80 percent of all Rhode Islanders were partially vaccinated. There were hints that with an approved vaccine for children and continued masking and social distancing, the pandemic might be in the rear-view mirror by spring.

Bryant University and the Rhode Island Public Expenditure Council’s Key Economic Indicators Briefing for 2021’s third quarter found the unemployment rate dropped from 12.5 percent during this time period in 2020 to 5.6 percent. Labor force participation increased 1.2 percent and net sales tax receipts increased by 6.5 percent over last quarter.

In November, the Revenue Estimating Conference, the semiannual forecast of the state’s expected revenues, projected that they would be significantly higher than predicted last May: $274 million more for the 2021–22 budget year and a total $4.74 billion in revenue for the 2022–23 budget year.

At the same time, the state was slated to receive $1.8 billion over two years from the federal American Rescue Plan Act to aid economic recovery from the pandemic — not to mention the state’s share from the bipartisan infrastructure bill. Rhode Island’s last windfall, $51 million from a 1998 settlement with four major tobacco companies, was spent by Governor Lincoln Almond and his successor, Governor Donald Carcieri, to plug state budget holes in 2002 and 2007. The state House of Representatives, which holds the purse strings, has already convened a task force to plot a spending strategy. There is no shortage of ideas coming from all directions. But, Rhode Island’s next governor will, no doubt, influence and preside over the disbursement of this massive federal investment — a shiny prize that could be a once-in-a-political-career opportunity to address structural problems.

“I think we are at a really critical moment for our state,” says Magaziner. “The thing that will hurt us is going back to the old-school I-know-a-guy politics that Rhode Island is known for. We have a decision to make and we have to choose the future.”