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See How They Run

Spoilers, upstarts, diehards! On the eve of 2010, the race for governor promises to be a free-for-all.

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In hard times, elections tend to be about change and who can deliver it. The fistful of ambitious politicians running for Rhode Island governor will spend millions of dollars pounding that theme: Things are going to change. Gubernatorial politics already have. The traditional two-party system is under assault in Rhode Island by credible independents and the rise of a new political party. These forces are helping shape the 2010 race into the wildest, most unpredictable and potentially most expensive ballot clash in state history — a four- or five-way general election frittata that could rematch old enemies and make some new ones, in a contest any of several candidates could win. 

“We’ve never seen this kind of election season,” marvels Warwick Mayor Scott Avedisian. “All the old alliances are 
in flux.”

Forecasting a race this early is more alchemy than political science — at this time in 2001, Donald Carcieri was an 
unknown retired executive with a marketable smile and a spare $1.5 million to risk on a long-shot run for governor — but here is a possible 2010 general election gubernatorial ballot:

► The Democratic nominee — last man standing between Attorney General Patrick Lynch and General Treasurer Frank Caprio.
► A Republican nominee crazy or confident enough to lug the GOP label around a state in which only 16 percent of voters last year identified themselves as Republicans in exit polls. With Carcieri term-limited and unable to run again, financial executive Rory Smith may have an inside track to the nomination.
► Former Republican U.S. Senator Lincoln Chafee, breaking ground as an independent candidate with the money and credibility to win.
► The first statewide candidate under the flag of the fledgling Moderate Party of Rhode Island, a serious third-party effort that must show respectably in the governor’s race to survive.
► Then, to make it interesting, save space for Chafee’s archrival, former Cranston Mayor Steve Laffey, the fed-up populist, who could be a second independent with credibility 
and cash.

“From a political fan’s perspective,” says Patrick Lynch, “this election has the potential to be historic.”

The race also comes at a critical time for a tiny state with big budget problems, dysfunctional politics and a lagging economy. The next governor will inherit one of the worst job markets in America; Rhode Island’s unemployment rate hovered above 12 percent this fall, far higher than the national average.

For years, the state has suffered declining population, a trend driven by a brain drain of young college graduates moving elsewhere for better opportunities. The state’s high school SAT scores lag below the national average in reading and math, and are lower than every other New England state but Maine. And the next Rhode Island governor must also address the pervasive sense that the branches of government can’t work together and that head-butting has supplanted cooperation on Smith Hill.

That new governor may have to take on these problems without a clear mandate from the electorate. With so many 
candidates, “you may end up with a governor who gets 35 percent of the vote,” says Darrell West, a former Brown University 
political scientist now at the Brookings Institution.

In this deep blue state, the dominant Democrats haven’t won a gubernatorial race since Bruce Sundlun’s re-election in 1992. Their problems have been self-inflicted. “Republicans win because Democrats slay themselves in primaries,” says John Holmes, former GOP state chairman.

Two young, ambitious Democrats are on course for another primary collision: Lynch, forty-four, and Caprio, forty-three; two former Ivy League jocks from political families. Each has a brawling, drop-the-gloves competitive streak. Neither will play gentle.

The general election may also offer a rematch of the thunderous 2006 Republican primary for U.S. Senate, in which Chafee survived a fierce challenge by Laffey, then limped into the general election and was dispatched by Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

After their primary, the combatants each wrote books on the GOP’s future. Laffey called Chafee a backstabbing “confessed cocaine abuser” who somehow still managed to be “a dull fellow.” Chafee responded with the ultimate snub, refusing to mention Laffey by name.

Another subplot revolves around the movement to create a lasting third-party.

Twenty-five years ago, the members of the new Moderate Party might have been Rockefeller Republicans, a socially liberal, pro-environment GOP faction that reigned in the Northeast. The Rockefeller brand of moderation has been driven to near extinction nationally by pressure from southern conservatives.

“The direction of the national Republican Party has opened the way for the Moderate Party and for this multi-candidate race,” says Chafee, who blamed the GOP’s rightward shift for his decision to abandon the party in 2007. “Wars, deficits, anti-environmentalism and social issues being used to divide people — the Moderate Party came in through that opening.”

Moderate Party Chairman Ken Block acknowledges that if Rhode Island had a stronger opposition party, the Moderates probably wouldn’t exist. “But this is not an initiative to shut down the state Republican Party,” he says. “Last thing I want is to be saddled with the cultural issue baggage of the GOP.”

The Moderates are fiscal conservatives without party-wide positions on social issues. Block and others midwifed the party onto the ballot through the courts and with paid signature collectors. By law, the Moderate candidate for governor must receive at least 5 percent of the vote in 2010, or Block and his troops must start over collecting thousands of signatures.

“I’d rather cut off my arm,” says Block.

Usually, 5 percent is a low bar. Robert Healey of the in-
dependent Cool Moose party got 9 percent in a low-budget protest campaign in 1994. “About 10 percent of the electorate is consistently dissatisfied,” says Healey.

But the Moderates won’t be the only place to 
register a protest vote on this election’s crowded ballot. One possible candidate, former attorney general and radio host Arlene Violet, a Moderate Party co-founder, probably could win 5 percent just from name recognition, according to experts I interviewed. But Violet would be a reluctant contender. “I prefer to try to build that effort and let someone younger run,” says Violet, who is sixty-five.

If the Moderates can’t find another credible 
warrior, “That would certainly put a lot of pressure on me,” Violet says. “I wouldn’t do it just to get 5 percent. I’d do it to win.”

Nobody I spoke to outside the movement thinks the Moderates can win the next governor’s race, but most agree the Moderate candidate could affect who wins by draining votes from somebody else.

“There are a lot of voting blocs up for grabs,” says West. “It’s unpredictable because a lot of the candidates have crossover potential.”

One sure thing about the campaign is that the economy will dominate the discussion. “The issues will be no mystery,” says Chafee. “Jobs, the budget and economic development — three sides of the same pyramid.”